2024 Prediction: Harris 291 - Trump 247
It's time to come off the fence, and embrace hope.
My assessment has been studiously neutral the whole cycle. I’ve been pushed hard to take a stand by friends but have declined, pointing to the swing state polls being coin-flip equivalent the whole cycle. But now it is the day before the election, I have voted for Kamala Harris, and I want to drink some Kool Aid. Hope is better than anxiety. It’s time to stop equivocating and plant my prediction flag.
Nevada: Harris, due to the high correlation to CA and the legacy Harry Reid / Las Vegas union establishment.
Arizona: Trump, because of a consistent polling lead. I don’t think Harris ever had a lead there in the averages.
Georgia: Trump. I actually think the vote will favor Harris by a margin, but post-election shenanigans will ultimately make GA’s vote unreliable. I’m just ruling GA out for the electoral math.
North Carolina: Harris. Vibes from the scene at Trump rallies today and corresponding Big Kamala Energy. The trend lines and polls over the weekend suggest a subsurface shift.
Michigan: Harris. Despite the protest vote on Gaza, the underlying trend suggests something happening under the radar. I’m drawing inferences from the Selzer poll of Iowa that something is going on, and is correlated across the Midwest, though Michigan is not so deep red as IA and therefore this puts it over the top. The Muslim vote will be a green herring.
Wisconsin: Harris. The same Iowa subsurface movement, plus my read on state local media that I still follow despite leaving there ten years ago, suggest that the Badgers will rise to the occasion. Plus, Kamala herself went to Green Bay and La Crosse, which is a huge deal.
Pennsylvania: Harris. In this bridge between Midwest and Northeast, I think both halves of PA come through with turnout ground game.
My scenario here doesn’t require Georgia for a win, and if you drop Pennsylvania, Harris still wins. Since outcome of the above does not require PA, I would consider it a landslide victory.
Here’s the map:
Tomorrow, I will find out if I’m right or wrong, but really what I want to know is whether I have any political intelligence or not. Have I drunk the Kool Aid? Maybe. Tomorrow will tell.